BJP lose 2019 election!!!!

Why will BJP lose 2019 election?

          After the recent lost in the election the main question that rise throughout the country is that will BJP win the coming general election or they will lose it?

          The present Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had it great until now. Despite having the dubious distinction of leading Gujarat as its chief minister throughout fashionable India’s worst riot - the 2002 carnage - he spearheaded the BJP to four consecutive victories in the state. Not to mention his victorious march to 7, Lok Kalyan Marg, in Delhi after the 2014 elections and the BJP’s amazing rally to lap up 21 states under his leadership.

          He demonetized eighty-six (86%) per cent of the Indian currency and brought in an exceedingly Draconian tax regime within the name of GST. It introduced 5 completely different slabs of taxation that modification by the region, and was responsible for shaving off 2 per cent of the country’s GDP.

          Yet, individuals were convinced that Modi had introduced the ‘One Nation One Tax’ policy and hailed him as a game-changer. Indeed Modi appeared unconquerable and was set to additional get on my feet the hill.       

          But, not so anymore!

          Now, there exist 2 distinct potentialities before following general elections - one, Modi faces a united opposition consisting of the resurgent Congress and most of the regional parties and, two, that he rides a wave of common sentiment that bills him because the solitary honest man. At this time, though, the primary chance appears stronger and that i have eleven reasons to believe therefore.

          Before obtaining to any extent further, it's necessary to know that following Lok Sabha elections area unit probably to be advanced and control at intervals 2018 at the side of the elections for eight to ten state Assemblies, all the same the Karnataka Assembly poll results.

If BJP triumphs in Karnataka, they would want to maintain the winning streak, and if they lose, they would want to get done with the general elections before sentiments dip further.

Now, Let me once more come back to the purpose wherever I contend that the Modi-Amit Shah-led BJP is on the decline right away.

Disillusionment and resultant desertion by allies

            The BJP’s oldest ally, Shiv Sena, recently declared that it'll go alone within the next general elections. Their current alliance with BJP is primarily set by power compulsions. But with the Maharashtra Assembly general elections, due to the uncertainty of the alliance, the BJP is set to lose an ally.

            The first person to endorse Modi because the PM candidate, outside the BJP, was TDP supreme N Chandrababu Naidu. His recent call to run out of the NDA and move a no-confidence motion against the govt should not be seen in isolation.

            As BJP tries to undermine the identity of regional players, a counteroffensive becomes inevitable. TDP was pushed to the corner by the BJP’s refusal to accord special standing to province. Naidu's survival depends on his commitment to regionalism and his agenda isn't a similar as that of the BJP. So, a divorce was inevitable.

            As regionalism gets entrenched in Bharat, Indian politics is set to get interesting over the next few months. As each state stands up for its own interests, watch out for silent BJP allies such as Nitish Kumar. Their loyalty to the BJP can presently come back below the scanner. The same holds true for Punjab’s Akali dekalitre, that has already expressed its yearning. Not to mention that a separation with the Mehbooba Mufti-led Jammu and geographic region government is simply an issue of your time within the current violent scenario in J&K.

Consolidation of regional rivals

            The coming along of unlikely allies in Parliament on the problem of special standing to province is symbolic of what may happen once the final elections ar command. If the Congress, TDP and YSR Congress will come back together; therefore will alternative regional forces.

            The bigger story, though, is that the coming-together of Dalit-friendly BSP light-emitting diode by Mayawati and also the Muslim-OBC-friendly SP light-emitting diode by Akhilesh Yadav. The SP recently tight the Gorakhpur and Phulpur constituencies with implied support from the BSP. This turns the tables in UP, wherever BJP won seventy two of eighty seats within the last general elections.

            It is 1989 once again for Indian politics. Back then, the Left and also the Right had propped up VP Singh to stay the Congress unfree. There might not be an enormous pan-India alliance or perhaps one coalition. Modi’s rivals may arrange themselves in various formations.

Rise of the state-first sentiment

            There is a precise specialise in the ‘state-first’ expression additionally to a consolidation of the federal forces. The Mysore Congress goes additional and showing a Karnataka-first approach that BJP can’t counter at this time in time. Ironically, the thought of corroding regional forces against the BJP’s complete of politics is being tested 1st, ironically, by another national party. In Mysore, the Congress has given up all pretensions of being a pan-India party. Its CM Siddaramaiah has donned the garb of an official dedicated to the interest of his state, making its own flag and maintaining Lingayatism as a separate faith.

Aggressive anti-BJP stance of regional rulers

            Every regional leader is currently skin sensation to revolt against the BJP. Mamata Banerjee, K Chandrasekhar Rao, Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Arvind Kejriwal, Naveen Patnaik and even Uddhav writer ar able to counter the BJP's aggression.

            In this new polity, wherever the BJP is saying to place Bharat 1st, albeit, through questionable slogans, the counter cries of ‘my-state-first’ ar rising to a crescendo.

            The hurdles created for the AAP-led Delhi government, threats of prosecution against Mamata Banerjee’s second line of leaders, the BJP-inspired defection of BJD leaders, the political tensions caused in Kerala and the governmental trust deficit in Jammu associated geographic region - everything has light-emitting diode to an anti-Modi stand adopted by the regional parties.

Joblessness and agrarian distress

            Assuming workplace with the promise of making 2 large integer new jobs a year - that resulted in the creation of a paltry twenty lakh jobs - Modi’s development plank stands exposed. IT, realty and retail sectors are actually reducing their workforces.

            The recent farmers’ protests across various states including the Kisan Long March have brought agrarian distress to the forefront. The government has didn't provide minimum support costs, implement Forest Rights Act for social group cultivators while not land rights, and waive off farm loans.

Social disharmony and Minority-Dalit-Tribal bonhomie

            Winning the mandate on a development plank and waste it with trivial problems like ‘Love Jihad’, cow law enforcement, ‘Ghar Wapasi’, Padmavati and the likes; the Modi government has worsened the social harmony index.

            Alongside, attacks on Dalits in varied states have crystal rectifier to increasing Dalit disillusionment with this dispensation despite the tokenism in appointing a Sanghi Dalit as India’s President. With the increase of Dalit icons like Jignesh Mevani, Prakash Ambedkar et al, the minority-Dalit bonhomie is evident. It will get an extra bonus with Mayawati, Akhilesh and RJD’s Lalu Prasad returning below an equivalent umbrella. The farmer discontent across many states is also bringing a large section of the tribal population closer to this axis.

Foreign policy failures and border skirmishes

            India, under Modi, has didn't deter China from obtaining entrenched within the Doklam region, didn't convert Asian nation once a unsafe economic blockade of the inland mountain chain nation, failed to raise large-scale investments from abroad in spite of endless visits of the PM (except from Japan) and didn't place an opening in Pakistani violations on the road of Control, resulting in a better range of Indian troopers obtaining killed on the border within the last four years.

Crony capitalism, NPAs and growth challenges

            The Indian banking industry is panting for breath, with NPAs increasing to just about Rs nine 100000 large integer, over double of the amount once Modi took over as PM. Vijay Mallya, Nirav Modi and many others have shown in quick succession how vulnerable the banking fundamentals are. While growth has plummeted by a pair of per cent once the dual blows of ending and GST, SMEs face closures. Although the position PR exercises at Davos and Moody’s ratings created some positivism, the bottom reality remains bleak and, more so, with low investments.

Hollowness of the anti-corruption plank and alienation of elite group

            Indira Gandhi coined the famed saying “They need to defeat Indira, we wish to fade poverty” and came to power. Modi desires to try to to the Indira act coining the saying, “They need to defeat Modi, I want to defeat corruption”. The government claimed to possess eliminated black cash through ending. But the actual scenario is different.

            Black cash stashed abroad hasn’t been brought back, an equivalent quantity of money demonetised has been tense into the system, appointment of the Lokpal hasn’t been made yet, no action has been taken against Robert Vadra and 2G scam-tainted leaders, and the CBI is behaving like a caged-parrot.

            The Rafale upset a large worth differential from UPA times is another nail within the coffin. The Army has no funds, and a crony capitalist with no defence production experience has got the procurement and servicing contract of defence products.

            The intelligentsia is aggrieved too. Nobody forced the govt to vow folks Rs fifteen lakh every. Nobody forced Modi to wear a wildly big-ticket suit. Nobody forced the BJP to use Photoshop and pretend pictures. Nobody forced the BJP to appoint prehistoric sexist moralists in high posts. Nobody forced its silence over the horrific lynchings of Muslims and Dalits. No one forced it to treat protestant students like criminals, or threaten Pakistan on national television. Nobody asked it to force Aadhaar down the throats of unwilling citizens. Nobody told it to jettison a competent run governor. Nobody forced it to begin dictating citizens’ personal decisions. Nobody created the BJP flip nationalism into a bigot’s weapon. Nobody asked it to trample science below belief and faith. Nobody asked it to force digital transactions on a nation wherever bank access, information property, and electricity are partial at best. But every of those was done, and blatantly and often hopelessly justified, using a pliant media.

BJP’s internal challenge

            Apart from the Advani-Joshi-Sinha populated BJP Margdarshak Mandal and others like Shatrughan Sinha, several current central ministers such as Sushma Swaraj and Rajnath Singh are apparently unhappy with the concentration of power in the hands of the PM. Challenges also are being expose by UP CM Yogi Adityanath from at intervals the party, VHP’s Pravin Togadia from outside the party and Subramanian Swamy from somewhere in between. One conspiracy theory these days is that party president Amit Shah of Iran ensured the defeat of the party candidate in Gorakhpur by selecting a light-weight candidate to chop Yogi to size.

BJP’s biggest strength: Congress

            If BJP wins once more, it will be purely due to the Congress. The Congress is presently governing in exactly 3 states and therefore the party president is young and inexperienced. With things in disarray, it will still be upon the oldest political party of India to show maturity and bring all anti-BJP forces together. Will the Congress exhibit that realism? Will it settle for a non-Congress leadership this point to induce BJP out of the approach and await Rahul Gandhi for an additional day? This remains a million dollar question.

            On Dussehra, Modi provided the perfect visual metaphor. He raised a bow to shoot AN arrow into the image of Ravana, unsuccessful doubly so simply threw the arrow a lame number of feet. A grand set-up for an embarrassing flop!